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Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions 1Q11

The Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions is a quarterly publication. It includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2015. Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, there is a five-page summary write-up providing the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.

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MCU End Use Markets: Where is the Growth in a Changing World?

Microcontrollers (MCUs) are a class of chips that we use everyday without even thinking about it. We take them for granted, yet they make our lives so much easier. These smart chips help control our hard disk drives, printers, ATMs, TVs, MP3 players, refrigerators and other computing and consumer devices. Who can live without their cell phone or their DVR? What about their car? The largest market for MCU sales, automotive, has had a major impact as car manufacturers have seen strong world wide resurgence in sales in 2010. Automotive MCU sales grew 46.2% in 2010.

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2011 Semiconductor Capex: Big Spending, Trouble Looming

The semiconductor industry experienced an outstanding recovery in 2010. Revenues grew 32%, while units grew 25%. Manufacturers responded to the sharp increase in demand by spending almost $50 billion, a 91% increase over 2009, on capital equipment, buildings and land. In 2011, Semico's forecast for the industry is an 8.3% increase in revenues and a 13.5% increase in units. Increasing economic uncertainty due to the political turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, combined with rising gas prices, will help bring the industry back to a more normal growth pattern this year.

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Semico Executive Brief: Mid-Range Cell Phones

The cell phone market is separated into three categories, based on their total semiconductor dollar content over the forecast period. The three categories are basic, mid-range, and high-end. Mid-range cell phones have a total semiconductor content of $20 to $60 and will have a 2010-2014 CAGR of 2.3%, reaching ~755m units in 2014.

The Executive Briefs cycle through 33 markets per year. Our analysts look to the segments that account for >80% of semiconductors, meaning our list of markets is fluid; we’re constantly adding new high growth markets to the list.

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Semico Executive Brief: Basic Cell Phones

The cell phone market is separated into three categories, based on their total semiconductor dollar content over the forecast period. The three categories are basic, mid-range, and high-end. Basic cell phones have a total semiconductor content of less than $20 and will have a 2010-2014 CAGR of 10.5%, reaching ~300m units in 2014.

The Executive Briefs cycle through 33 markets per year. Our analysts look to the segments that account for >80% of semiconductors, meaning our list of markets is fluid; we’re constantly adding new high growth markets to the list.

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Semico Executive Brief: High-End Cell Phones

The cell phone market is separated into three categories, based on their total semiconductor dollar content over the forecast period. The three categories are basic, mid-range, and high-end. High-end cell phones have a total semiconductor content of greater than $60 and will have a 2010-2014 CAGR of 9.8%, reaching ~460m units in 2014.

The Executive Briefs cycle through 33 markets per year. Our analysts look to the segments that account for >80% of semiconductors, meaning our list of markets is fluid; we’re constantly adding new high growth markets to the list.

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Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions 4Q10

The Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions is a quarterly publication. It includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2015. Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, there is a five-page summary write-up providing the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.

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MCU Memory Trends: How Much and What Kind, 4Q 2009 Update

2009 was a rough year for most semiconductors, and MCUs were no exception. A major reason for the 2009 MCU sales decline was a sharp drop in overall average selling prices comounded with the severe drop in end-use demand, especially in the automotive market. The high rate of ASP decline was indicative of the tough economic conditions impacting the semiconductor industry:

• Chip vendors slashed prices in order to move product.
• OEMs reduced inventories, thus impacting the unit shipments.
• The supply chain and production pipeline were reduced considerably in 1H 2009.

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Semico Executive Brief: DVD Video Recorders

The DVD format is not dead. On the consumer side, the Americas are switching to Blu-ray, while Asia Pacific is still using standard DVD players. The WW market will reach ~110m units in 2014.

The Executive Briefs cycle through 33 markets per year. Our analysts look to the segments that account for >80% of semiconductors, meaning our list of markets is fluid; we’re constantly adding new high growth markets to the list.

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Semico Executive Brief: Blu-ray Players

Blu-ray has had a slow introduction and even though the “format wars” have been over for a few years now, consumers are still confused about many of the benefits of converting to Blu-ray vs. staying with DVD. The WW market will grow to ~125m units in 2014, a CAGR of 55.8%.

The Executive Briefs cycle through 33 markets per year. Our analysts look to the segments that account for >80% of semiconductors, meaning our list of markets is fluid; we’re constantly adding new high growth markets to the list.

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