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Semico's 2009 Fab Database: Closures, Consolidations, and Conservative Capex

There have been some major changes in the semiconductor industry over the past year, due to the global economic crisis. These changes have impacted the status of semiconductor fabs worldwide: capacity, capex, wafer size, closures, launches, production ramps, technology node migration, and employee count. Semico’s 2009 Fab Database study will provide key information on changes that have occurred in 2009, and what plans are in place for upcoming fab construction and closures in 2010-2012. The study includes one table and twelve figures in 17 pages.

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IP Subsystems: The Next IP Market Paradigm

As the semiconductor industry enters the second decade of the 21st Century, substantial changes to the System-on-a-Chip (SoC) design methodology are taking shape. These changes reflect issues the industry has been discussing for the last 5-6 years that are adversely affecting the SoC design effort to an ever-greater degree:
• Rising design costs
• Increasing design complexity
• Shrinking market windows
• Lengthening design cycle times
• Rapidly changing market requirements
• Escalating integration costs for Semiconductor

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The Blu-ray Argument: Players & Recorders

The recession of 2008 and 2009 impacted the entire semiconductor industry, including a relatively new market for chips: Blu-ray Players. A fledgling technology that had just defeated the HD-DVD format in 2008, Blu-ray had a difficult time gaining traction in its early years due to limited Blu-ray disc content and a high ASP compared to DVD Players.

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3rd Party Semiconductor Intellectual Property Market: Resumption of Growth

2008 was forecast to be a good growth year, until external events in worldwide financial markets overtook the SIP market. The SIP industry was not immune to the market forces unleashed in 2008, declining 21.9% in 2009. However, the recovery which arrived in the second half of 2009 prevented the 3rd Party SIP from declining at an even steeper rate. It is Semico’s view that the SIP market will continue to perform at rates comparable to other semiconductor markets, with 17.1% growth in 2010.

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ASIC Design Starts: Recovery in the Markets

The ASIC Design Start landscape has changed in the last three or four years starting with 2006 and continuing through today.  The market landscape has changed to accommodate increasing design costs, rising design complexity and lengthening design cycle times, especially in the System-on-a-Chip (SoC) market.

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ASIC Design Starts By Key End Market Application

The end of 2008 saw dramatic changes in the ASIC design start landscape as end market demand for both silicon solutions and the unit volumes associated with those solutions evaporated quickly in the face of the worldwide financial meltdown. Many designs that were underway were either cancelled outright or were suspended pending a recovery in the end markets. Starting at the end of 1Q09, the market decline halted, markets stabilized and came roaring back in the second half of 2009 and into 2010.

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DIMM Revenues Soar: High Density DRAM Module Market Overview

In 2008, the DRAM industry faced a supply glut. ASPs for DRAM chips fell precipitously and as a consequence, DIMM module revenues and profits fell as well. DRAM manufacturers slashed capacity output late in 2008 in order to tighten chip supply. Near the midpoint of 2010, demand began to recover as the overall global economy stabilized after all of the financial fallout. What resulted was a return to profitability for DIMM module OEMs and third-party module vendors. For 2010, the DIMM module market will experience a 62.3% increase in revenues year over year.

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Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions 2Q10

The Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions is a quarterly publication. It includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2013. Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, there is a five-page summary write-up providing the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.

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System(s)-on-a-Chip: A Change in SoC Design Methodology

The SoC market experienced negative revenue for the first time in 2009 since the market was first tracked in 1998. Total market revenues declined 19.2% in 2009 in response to weak end-market unit demand and increasing pressure on device ASPs. However, the market is recovering strongly in 2010 as market demand solidifies. Revenue for this market will grow from $45,294M in 2010 to $69,405M by 2015, a CAGR of 8.9%.

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