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August 2009

Looking for Sales in All the Right Places: Used Semi Equipment

Potential Equipment Sale to TI Confirms Opportunity Identified In Semico Study
Used Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Looking for Sales in All the Right Places

Used Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Looking for Sales in All the Right Places

The used semiconductor manufacturing business is alive and well. Over the next five years, the availability of affordable used equipment will allow semiconductor fabs, research labs and universities to upgrade to faster, more cost effective 200mm and 300mm tools. This study provides five-year forecasts for used equipment supply and demand based on wafer demand and fab requirements. It also identifies opportunities for sales of used 200mm and 300mm equipment.

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Foundry Market Trends: No Longer "Taiwan-Centric", 3Q09

Change is on the horizon. Advanced Technology Investment Company LLC (ATIC) and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (Chartered) have entered into a definitive agreement whereby ATIC will acquire Chartered. What does this mean? Semico does not think that TSMC will be ‘dethroned’ as the leading foundry but it does mean that the number two spot is definitely up for grabs. Semico’s data indicates that by 2011, the combined GlobalFoundries/Chartered company will out pace UMC in terms of advanced capacity available for production.

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2009 Semiconductor Capex: Are We Headed for a Shortage?

Phoenix, Arizona August 11, 2009 - In 2009, capital spending is down 35% from 2008. Semico expects spending to rebound significantly in 2010 as projects that have been on hold get the green light. A beneficiary of this increased spending will be the 200mm used equipment market, which will see higher demand coming from this recovery. “We’re halfway through the third quarter, and we’ve already seen increased capex projections from a number of companies,” stated Adrienne Downey, Director of Technology Research.

Executive Briefs: 30 Markets in 30 Minutes

Published once a year, the Executive Briefs report is an executive summary of all the markets tracked in Semico’s MAP Model program. Overall, there are 30 end-use markets analyzed from the computing, consumer, and communications segments. Our analysis includes a look at each market’s production forecast, semiconductor content, geographic production, total available market, and wafer demand by production node over a five year forecast period.

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Semico Forecasts Right On

Semico Research pops out the Champagne with a forecast that accurately pinpointed the industry turning point and magnitude.  Second quarter 2009 semiconductor revenues hit 17% growth over first quarter!  After a spectacular -24% plunge in Q4 2008 followed by a dismal -15% in Q1 2009, Q2 came roaring back! Semico never bought into the scenario of a semiconductor depression in 2009 where sales would fall 21-30% as many have forecasted. Our detailed analysis of the end markets combined with manufacturing capacity, investment strategies and the proven Inflection Point Model (IPI) clearly pointed to a V-shaped recovery that was even stronger that what we forecasted with December 2008 statistics.  The industry is clearly on the road to recovery and the semiconductor industry is leading the world economic recovery.

The two graphs below clearly show the accurate predictive nature of Semico’s tools.  The first graph was published in the February 2009 IPI report using December 2008 data.  The second graph was published in July 2009 using May 2009 data.  The pink line is actual worldwide semiconductor revenue and the green line is Semico’s forecast.  The Semico IPI pinpointed the month and level of the bottom of the down cycle.  The V-shape recovery actually has been a little stronger than forecasted.  Did anyone really believe that the semiconductor industry has ended its cyclical nature? No one at Semico!  The herd mentality can be a dangerous phenomenon.

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