You are here

September 2009

Consolidation Changing the Foundry Landscape

Phoenix, Arizona September 8, 2009 - Change is on the horizon. Advanced Technology Investment Company LLC (ATIC) and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (Chartered) have entered into a definitive agreement whereby ATIC will acquire Chartered. What does this mean? Semico does not think that TSMC will be ‘dethroned’ as the leading foundry but it does mean that the number two spot is definitely up for grabs. Semico’s data indicates that by 2011, the combined GlobalFoundries/Chartered company will out pace UMC in terms of advanced capacity available for production.

Automotive Semiconductor, Still a Promising Market.

Typically when we think of advanced electronics in cars most of us think that the new technology is only in the high-end cars like the Mercedes S-Class. This is changing and Ford Motor Company is pushing the envelope with the new 2010 Taurus.

The 2010 model has added a bundle of nifty electronics for safety that one might expect on much higher end cars. CMOS image sensors provide blind spot detection on both the left and right sides of the vehicle. The mirrors have displays that indicate an object has entered the blind spot.

The car has a rear video camera which displays on the navigation screen in the dash for added safety when parking or backing up.

Voice activation is available for the navigation, phone and music systems. The in-car voice-activated communications system allows you to operate the most popular MP3 players, Bluetooth®-enabled phones and flash drives with simple voice commands. The car also features Sync powered by Microsoft and includes 911 emergency assistance, vehicle health report, real-time traffic conditions, turn-by-turn directions and other information

Intel Outlook On Track With Semico Forecast

Last week (August 28, 2009) Intel raised its revenue forecast for 3Q 2009.  The company stated that due to “stronger than expected demand” for microprocessors and chipsets it has raised is revenue forecast to $9.0 B, plus or minus $200 million.  The previous outlook given by Intel in July was between $8.1 and $8.9 billion.

Intel is one of several other high profile companies in high tech who have recently indicated seeing signs of a recovery.  Dell had lower profits than a year ago, but not as bad as had been expected.  Dell is anticipating improving sales in 2H 2009.  Hewlett-Packard has seen its profits slide also, but the company has said that business is stabilizing.

Semico Research has forecasted since early 2009 that the semiconductor industry would see a strong recovery starting in Q2 2009.  This has been reported in several of our publications, including the IPI Report.  Semico’s PC forecast and related MPU forecast has changed very little since early 2009.  The recent news, including Intel’s revised 3Q 2009 outlook, supports Semico’s views.

Intel’s MPU business usually represents about three-quarters of its total revenue stream.  Historically, Intel holds just over 80% of the MPU market, per the SIA/WSTS Blue Book.  Therefore, Intel’s revenue prediction is in line with Semico’s MPU forecast for 3Q 2009 of $8.2 billion.

Gasoline Engine or Battery Power: What Semiconductors Will Be Needed?

Gasoline or electric?  Hybrid or plug-in.  Lithium ion or fuel cell?  What will we be driving?  It depends on the supply of oil, the price of gasoline, global warming, battery technology and more; but, whatever the outcome, there’s opportunity for semiconductors. 

Automobile sales are beginning a recovery from a disastrous slump.  Sales will increase more than 3% annually through 2013.  That may not seem very high, but it is a terrific number in the automobile industry, especially after the last year.  It will lead to much higher semiconductor growth opportunities.  For example, the 2008 - 2013 CAGR for hybrid electric vehicle control semiconductor revenue will be 52.8%. 

Semiconductor growth opportunities will occur, in part, because the kinds of automobiles being manufactured are going to change dramatically.  Cars will be smaller, more fuel efficient, and have alternate power plants.  The facts supporting this have become politicized and are hotly disputed; but here are the basics. 

Oil supplies are being depleted.  The price of gasoline will increase to $10.00 per gallon or more in the US within ten years.  Global warming is real; and people are causing it, not some variation in a natural cycle.  Automotive emissions are a major contributing factor. 

Twitter