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Market Improvements in 2H 2019 Soften Wafer Demand Decline, says Semico Research

Unit sales are the primary driver for wafer demand. With inventories for many products back in balance, most markets are returning to a 'normal' seasonal pattern. Last quarter, it looked like optoelectronics and sensors were the only categories expected to register positive unit growth in 2019. Now DRAM, NOR, MOS Logic Computing, Automotive, Multi-purpose Logic and a few others will actually register unit growth in 2019.

A new report from Semico Research, Semico, Wafer Demand Q3 2019 Highlights (MA112-19)  states that although total units in 2019 will decline, there are now more product categories that will actually show some improvement. Due to the improved unit sales, Semico's wafer demand forecast also improved from a -6.9% decline to only a -5.9% decline. 
"Semico's overall 2019 semiconductor forecast is based on a better second half, for both revenues and units. Historically, the second half of the year does result in better semiconductor sales. However, the growth in the 2H 2019 appears substantial when compared to the 1H results, but it's primarily because the 1H 2019 suffered a significant drop," says Joanne Itow, Manager of Semico's Manufacturing Research.  "The larger-than-seasonal drop in 1H 2019 was primarily based on two things: a very disruptive macroeconomic threat (tariffs), and a cyclical shift in the memory market."
Additional key findings include:

  • Total wafer demand in 2019 is expected to reach 105.3 million 300mm wafer equivalents.
  • DRAM units are expected to increase 11% in 2019.
  • After growing 35% in 2018, Automotive MOS Logic units are expected to grow only 7.8% in 2019.
  • Sensor revenues are expected to decrease 3.5% in 2019 while unit growth is expected to be 11.4%.

Semico Research's report, Semico Wafer Demand Q3 2019 Highlights (MA112-19), includes an Excel spreadsheet which provides wafer demand by 18 product categories and 14 technology nodes over a 13-year time frame from 2010 to 2022. There is also a summary write-up which provides insight into the recent trends for key semiconductor product categories.
For pricing and additional information, please contact:
Rick Vogelei
Business Development
Phone: 480-435-8564
About Semico
 Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company located in Phoenix, Arizona.  We offer custom consulting, portfolio packages, individual market research studies and premier industry conferences.