Joanne Itow's blog

As companies such as TSMC and Intel spend less on capital expenditures this year, expectations for SEMICON West 2015 were pretty bleak. I thought I’d have fewer appointments and nothing to really write home about.

Au contraire. Although traffic on the show floor was nothing compared to events like CES, there are three things that I think are driving growth and excitement at semiconductor equipment and material companies.

First, the major driver of equipment spending is changing from a focus on new greenfield fabs to the technology transitions that are and are not happening. Gary Dickerson, CEO of Applied Materials, clearly laid out the ‘inflections’. 3D NAND devices are a material enabling inflection and 10nm/7nm logic devices are driving a litho or patterning inflection. What does all this mean? The bottom line is more steps and more tools.

A recent article by Peter Clarke, EETimes, ‘TSMC Overtakes Intel in Chip Capex Ranking’ seemed to imply that a lower capital expenditure in 2015 was a bad sign. A growing capital expenditure budget does not always signal good times ahead just as a small capex does not mean disaster. Most companies are talking about the slowing or end of Moore’s law. Intel is one of the few companies that is back on Moore’s Law transistor density curve with their 14nm second generation Tri-Gate process. In fact, Intel has publicly stated that at 14nm they are ahead of Moore’s Law! Increased transistor density typically means smaller die sizes. All other variables being equal, this also translates to higher yields and less wafers required to meet market demand. A reduced capex is one of the benefits of improved efficiencies when a process obtains its sweet spot. Is it possible that others have to spend more in capex in anticipation of larger die sizes, lower yields and the need for more wafer throughput? A growing capex could mean expanding sales or the promise of a new market, but declining capex is not necessarily a bad omen. Remember when the industry experienced huge crashes because of the cycles that were caused by capex overspending? We haven’t experienced one of those in a few years, but I’m sure that can’t be erased from our memories yet.

Were you in Shanghai last week? If not, you missed the biggest Semicon event in the world. Semicon China broke records this year. With more than 1,000 companies participating, and 570,000 square meters of exhibition space, Semicon China attracted more than 50,000 visitors, making it the largest Semicon event in the world. All the sessions we attended were standing room only.

Key areas of focus this week included IoT, the JCET/STATS ChipPac merger and the China National IC Fund. AMD CEO Lisa Su set the stage with an opening keynote highlighting the exciting possibilities still ahead for the industry. She pointed out the opportunities and challenges facing electronics as we move toward photorealistic, real-time virtual reality. New applications such as mobile VR require the processing power to transmit a million times faster than the speed that we use to transmit today. These applications will require immersive computing. The need for performance, bandwidth and low power is not subsiding.

The cocktail parties and networking breaks were buzzing over the merger of JCET/STATS ChipPac and the new government investment program, which is focusing on developing China’s IC industry. JCET’s chairman and CEO, Xinchao Wang, views the merger with STATS ChipPac as a strategic move to broaden their worldwide market, as well as improve the opportunity to expand R&D to meet advanced and specialized market needs required by the new emerging markets.

The fact that new materials continue to be discovered and introduced into innovative electronic devices is a major feat. Semico is analyzing the challenges of new product discovery, development and commercialization. Graphene is just one of the products under investigation. This write-up is taken from a full essay in this month’s Semico IPI report.

Since 2004, when two scientists at Manchester University, Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov, isolated a single sheet of graphene and then performed electrical measurements and characterizations on the material, graphene has become the superstar of the material world. Today, I Googled graphene, and got 11,500,000 results, including definitions, companies, recent research findings, images and in-depth articles. And the patents are piling up. Samsung was reported as one of the leaders in this area with more than 200 patents.

Rolling out a new semiconductor technology always has its share of challenges, but it seems like the 14nm finFET process node is starting off with more than its share of delays and speculation.

This week Intel revealed some of the details for its new microarchitecture, Broadwell, and their first product, the Intel Core M processor, to be manufactured using their second-generation finFET, 14nm technology.

Plagued by rumors of yield issues and a slow computing market in 2013, Intel delayed the release of their newest 14nm product line by almost one year.

Back on July 16, during the TSMC Q2 2014 financial conference call, the company reported that their 16nm finFET process would not begin ramping until 2H 2015. That is a delay of approximately six months from the original Q4 2014 ramp target.

There have been some technology issues, but Semico believes these delays are also market-driven. In the past, new products could be released for the early adopters willing to pay a premium just to get in on the higher performance. Huge volumes were not required from day one. Today, the ramp to high volume occurs much faster and the products require high efficiency and low cost to support huge consumer driven mobile markets.

What happens when technology from the fast paced communication industry makes a move into the traditional automotive industry? Semiconductor marketers and even the automotive industry are talking about revolutionary changes inside and outside the vehicle. 

What kinds of changes?  Ethernet and sensors.  There’s a lot of excitement and enthusiasm over the prospect of cars with Ethernet networking capabilities and multiple ports for streaming video, driver-assist cameras, real-time diagnostics and autonomous driving.  Ethernet is touted as being a faster, and ultimately cheaper, network solution for the operational information collected by sensors as well as providing more bandwidth for the infotainment needs of each passenger.    

After attending DAC last week, I was quite bullish myself.  Companies such as Synopsys are reporting significant design activity focused on automotive applications.  Synopsys offers their DesignWare ARC SEP Processor for ISO 26262 safety compliant solutions as well as a sensor IP subsystem for small, low power devices. 

Ethernet is already ubiquitous in the communication world, providing not only experienced design knowledge but also large-volume manufacturing.  Large volumes lead to economies of scale and lower costs compared to other automotive network options.  Cadence has a long history of designing Ethernet IP and developing standards which will make adoption in the automotive industry much smoother.

Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to realistically assess all the activity at CES 2014. The big screen TVs, the shiny new cars and all the excitement over Internet of Things certainly dazzled the CES show floor. But how much of it is hype and what will really become sustainable products?

Smart lighting, smart refrigerators, smart cars, and a smart thermostat are all part of what is being touted as the Internet of Things. The IoT scenario goes something like this: You’re driving home from work, and a voice in your car tells you to buy some eggs because there are no more in the refrigerator. Then, when you’re five miles away, your home thermostat is activated to turn on the heat so the house is warm and cozy when you arrive. Sounds like the ideal butler and a lot of WiFi chips.

All the new fitness gadgets and home medical devices also are worth watching. Wireless medical devices that enable Aging in Place really appeal to an aging population. From Fitbits to the Neubac to thought-controlled prosthetics, medical electronics for personal use is a growing consumer segment.

Another CES item that deserves attention are the 3D printing displays. Producing toys to musical instruments to candy is just one button away. From consumer to industrial, medical and even art, the applications are endless.

At the Semico Impact Conference: Focus on the IP Ecosystem, Mahesh Tirupattur, Executive Vice President, Analog Bits, challenged four panelists to an engaging discussion on their approach to IP Ecosystem Solutions for Complex Systems. Panel participants included Dan Kochpatcharin, Deputy Director, IP Portfolio Management, TSMC; Jason Polychronopoulos, Mentor Graphics; Chris Rowen, Cadence Fellow; and Warren Savage, President and CEO, IPextreme.

Tirupattur skillfully pulled both humorous and discriminating observations from the foundry perspective, the EDA perspective and both a large and small IP vendor.
The topic of the panel was the high cost and risk of integrating IP in today’s semiconductor product development. There’s a massive risk of product failure from choosing the wrong IP, the wrong supplier, the wrong fab, or the wrong process. A misstep means jobs could be on the line. Today, complex SoCs are not comprised of just one or two IP blocks, it’s a battalion of IP coming from a variety of sources. Dan Kochpatcharin of TSMC noted that at the 20nm node an average design has 12 unique IP blocks. That compares to an average of only eight at the 28nm node.

Escaping the scorching Arizona temperatures is only one reason why I always look forward to Semicon West. This year’s event was packed with an exceptional variety of activities and vendors. What was the most memorable take-away from the show? There were plenty of panels, presentation and networking discussions on the 450mm wafer transition and EUV. But the biggest thing that I walked away with was the focus on new materials and the tools that work with these new enabling materials. There are a lot of innovations and modifications taking place across the ecosystem that relate to materials.

My week started with presentations at Applied Materials. Mike Splinter, Chairman and CEO, is supplying the ammunition for the “war for mobility”. He directed our attention to their name, Applied MATERIALS. AMAT believes device performance and yield is being achieved through material innovation, and they are focused on enabling the success of those new materials.

New material introduction was the theme from IMEC. They announced a manganese-based barrier process that significantly improves RC (Resistance Capacitance) performance. The use of manganese resulted in a 40% increase in RC benefits at 40nm half pitch compared to conventional tantalum options today. Yet another material being added to the list of possible solutions.

Last week while traveling in the Bay Area, I forgot my GPS so I used my iPhone 4s to guide me around. My rental car came with a Microsoft SYNC USB connection, so I thought I’d have no problems using my phone with the car system. I plugged in my phone, input my next destination and was on my way. Not quite.

MapQuest audio was not working. I had to unplug the phone from the car to hear the turn by turn navigation. The iPhone 4s uses an A-GPS or assisted GPS and has an integrated digital compass, providing additional directional information. But for some reason, the mapping application was continually re-calculating. I was on the route, but the navigation system thought I was somewhere else!

I drove to the ISQED SensorsCon Conference and Becky Oh, President and CEO of PNI Sensors provided some great insight on sensors and the real world. Nine-axis sensing is common today. The combination of a gyroscope, accelerometer and magnetic sensors provide the tracking data to determine up and down, side to side, and back and forth movements. Sensors can register how fast we’re moving, which direction we’re facing, and turning radius.