Semico Forecasts Right On

Semico Research pops out the Champagne with a forecast that accurately pinpointed the industry turning point and magnitude.  Second quarter 2009 semiconductor revenues hit 17% growth over first quarter!  After a spectacular -24% plunge in Q4 2008 followed by a dismal -15% in Q1 2009, Q2 came roaring back! Semico never bought into the scenario of a semiconductor depression in 2009 where sales would fall 21-30% as many have forecasted. Our detailed analysis of the end markets combined with manufacturing capacity, investment strategies and the proven Inflection Point Model (IPI) clearly pointed to a V-shaped recovery that was even stronger that what we forecasted with December 2008 statistics.  The industry is clearly on the road to recovery and the semiconductor industry is leading the world economic recovery.

The two graphs below clearly show the accurate predictive nature of Semico’s tools.  The first graph was published in the February 2009 IPI report using December 2008 data.  The second graph was published in July 2009 using May 2009 data.  The pink line is actual worldwide semiconductor revenue and the green line is Semico’s forecast.  The Semico IPI pinpointed the month and level of the bottom of the down cycle.  The V-shape recovery actually has been a little stronger than forecasted.  Did anyone really believe that the semiconductor industry has ended its cyclical nature? No one at Semico!  The herd mentality can be a dangerous phenomenon.

It is clear to Semico that the world is a different place today. However, electronics are embedded in our lives and not only can we not live without them no one wants to!  The world is still in love with electronic devices.

Semico's IPI forecast from February

Semico's IPI Forecast from July