Semico Lowers Forecast as NAND Prices Weaken

Semico expects to see a stronger market in the second half of 2015, based on strong increases in our IPI index in the second half of 2014.  The IPI accurately predicts semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance.  Recent economic events and fears of weakness in some end markets have resulted in substantial downgrades in forecasts from other prognosticators. In the past we too have fallen into this trap only to look back to say that the IPI was more correct. Forecasting the semiconductor market is not for the "faint of heart". Our forecast for 2015, which has been holding at 5.3% for most of the year, has been trimmed to 4.3%. The lower forecast is driven by lower ASPs for NAND and weaker PC and tablet performance for this year.
 
For 2016, the IPI points to an expanding semiconductor market.  The IPI remained relatively flat in July registering 24.8 compared to 24.83 in June. During the first 7 months of 2015 the IPI increased 4.9%. Comparing July 2015 to July 2014 the IPI is up 10.5%. Semico president Jim Feldhan commented, "With improving economies, conservative capex spending, lean inventories and improved end market demand, the forecast for 2016 is pointing to a growth rate of 7.6%. This would be the second-best year since the boom year of 2010 when the market experienced 32% increase in revenue."
 
Semico IPI

Source:  Semico Research Corp.

Are you preparing next year's budget?  Include the IPI in your plans and you'll be on top of the latest trends in the semiconductor industry for 2016!
 
The IPI is Semico's most popular report series that accurately predicts semiconductor revenue inflection points four quarters in advance.  This is one of the best ways to stay up to date on semiconductor trends as each article seeks to discuss how current trends will affect the market over the next year along with detailed forecasts. 
 
The monthly IPI Report includes excerpts from recent Semico studies and the quarterly Semico Worldwide Semiconductor Sales Forecast in device detail (Units, Dollars, and ASPs). Report sections discuss future trends in the supply chain.  Subscribe now by contacting Jim Feldhan at jimf@semico.com or 602-997-0337.

For more information, contact Rick Vogelei.
Phone: (480) 435 - 8564
Email: rickv@semico.com
 
About Semico
Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company located in Phoenix, Arizona.  Semico was founded in 1994 by a group of semiconductor industry experts. We have improved the validity of semiconductor product forecasts via technology roadmaps in end-use markets.  Semico offers custom consulting, portfolio packages, individual market research studies and premier industry conferences.