Microcontroller Market Analysis & Forecast

The Microcontroller (MCU) market showed a slight recovery in 2006, growing 3.0% to reach $12.4 billion. This dollar growth was driven by the 32-bit and greater segment. Overall unit growth of MCUs was 19.5%.

“Tremendous unit growth for 16-bit MCUs was largely responsible for the overall growth in 2006,” said Tony Massimini, Chief of Technology and Micrologic at Semico Research Corporation. “This high growth for 16-bit MCU shipments was due primarily to IC cards and industrial control. The 16-bit segment will continue to show strong growth, surpassing 8-bit unit sales in 2011.”

The MCU market is segmented by embedded memory technology and by density.

Flash MCUs account for the largest share of MCU revenues, capturing over 58% in 2006 and will continue to grow to over $12.3 billion in 2011. However the IC card MCU segment surpassed Flash MCU in unit sales for the first time in 2006, with over 2.9 billion units sold of IC card MCU in 2006. Over the course of the next five years, IC card MCU grows stronger and represent over 46% of the total MCU market.

Overall, Average Selling Price (ASP) declined in 2006. Tony Massimini forecasts that ASPs will continue to decline across each category.

The Semico MCU forecast methodology is perhaps the most complete and accurate model in the market. The forecast is built upon a model that compares end-application demand using the Semico MAP model to production capacity from Semico's exhaustive fab database. This is layered upon pricing models extracted from historical market behavior, and is continually tested against WSTS history, company financials, and Semico's Inflection Point Indicator.

This report and associated Excel workbook that includes detailed spreadsheets with 41 tables and graphs is available for immediate delivery for $3,500. To purchase, please contact Susan Cadel at 607-368-7600 or susanc@semico.com, and reference report ML101-07, MCU Memory Trends.