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Memory Wafer Demand and Capacity Analysis

Phoenix, Arizona November 20, 2007 - The most far-reaching development in semiconductor production in this decade was development of a non-volatile memory technology with manufacturing similarities and volume requirements approaching that of DRAM. This newfound opportunity to balance fab requirements between two high-volume products has permanently altered the dynamics for both of these ultra-competitive products. The ability to shift resources between two similar technologies with potentially different demand cycles brings the potential for more sensitive balance between supply and demand.

However as shown earlier this year, that opportunity brings with it an increased level of complexity in managing the resources for two very competitive end markets. This complexity is due to the unpredictability of the two end markets. Half of the new dynamic duo consists of DRAM that has traditionally been regarded as risky because of the extreme sweeps between the market highs and lows.

NAND nonvolatile memory, the other half of the combo, sets new production records each year on the way to becoming one of the fastest growing product markets in semiconductor history.

Are NAND and DRAM demand counter-cyclical enough to provide stability in 2008 or do those separate demand cycles merge in 2008 to pull NAND into the existing DRAM boom-and-bust cycle? Semico’s analytical approach of combining both DRAM and NAND trends provides a unique overview. A proprietary model ties Semico’s component forecasts for these two critical technologies directly to the wafer demand. Sensitivity analysis techniques are applied to determine the impact of market-driven variables, such as unanticipated challenges in migration beyond 65nm combined with rapid growth in new applications. Completing this overview are projected capital expenditures and planned 300mm wafer capacity for major companies.

Semico’s Memory Wafer Demand and Capacity Analysis will be published in two reports. The DRAM report will be available in December 2007. The NAND report as well as the concluding analysis will be available in the first quarter of 2008. At the time of release, each report will be sold for $7,500 each. However, this set of two comprehensive reports is offered at the pre-release price of $10,000, a savings of $5,000. For more details and to take advantage of the pre-release savings, contact Susan Cadel at 607-368-7600 or at

•60% of all 300mm fabs are dedicated to memory products
•Capex of companies that make memory is 6 times higher than Intel
•Semi Capex is driven by the highly unpredictable memory requirements

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