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January 2012

New Tech Charging Up the Mobile Battery Market

Phoenix, Arizona January 24, 2012 - Battery life has always been a limiting issue when it comes to mobile electronics. Over the past two decades consumers have consistently complained about usable time with their smart phones, notebooks, etc. Ten years ago the introduction of Li-ion (lithium ion) batteries made a marked improvement in battery life; however, the same complaint continues to plague the mobile electronics industry.

Semico IMPACT Conference: Who Wins in the IP Ecosystem?

Phoenix, Arizona January 31, 2012 - SoC designers today are faced with a whole range of issues and questions that must be dealt with before they reach a final silicon solution. The pursuit of a successful resolution to these questions and issues is becoming ever more difficult. In classic fashion, a vibrant ecosystem has grown up around the SoC design community in an effort to provide solutions and answers to SoC designers. The importance of the ecosystem grows with every passing year and process node.

Samsung and the Future

MobileNations did a great video touting Samsung's Smart Window.

As Joanne said, CES was all about the touch screen display - and yes, its very minority reportish.  Putting this one on my wish list.

Battle of the Digital Ecosystems

This year's CES had a few themes to take away, but the one that seems to define the rest is that the old model is dead. We are firmly at a new frontier of technological development, and whatever new age we're entering, it's being shaped by Apple Inc.  Everyone else seems to still be struggling out of the rigid digital ecosystem developed in the 1980s.

For example, Kurt Smith, a VP of Verizon Communications Inc., believes a mature supply chain requires three levels: the content creators/manufacturer, the distributer, and the retailer -- for no other reason than that's the way it's always been done.

Verizon is already behind. This is a lag built upon a generational gap that we can only vaguely understand. For those of us who didn't grow up with the Internet, the texting of the newer generation is confounding. Worse, today's toddlers are using iPads in the cradle, so in 10 years the gap will be even larger and more confusing.

And yet, the majority of the panel sessions at CES were filled with old white men. I saw no minorities on the panels. There were two women in the sessions I attended, one older woman who wasn't even familiar with the panel she was moderating, and another who seemed more afraid of technology than anything else, a disturbing lack of diversity that didn't reflect the audience in any way.

On the show floor, it was shown just how this disparity is playing out.

CES 2012: It Is All About Motion, Touch and Sound

As usual, CES was huge and overwhelming …too much to see, too little time.   Actually there may have been enough time, but my feet gave out before I could get to everything.  The Qualcomm booth wasn’t really a booth; it was a mini-city with 2-story briefing rooms.   From what I did see, the big trend in consumer electronics this year will be in touch, voice and motion sensing.   All the same products were on display, i.e. TV’s, tablets, and smartphones, they’re just doing a lot more than they did last year.

It all started for me at the Qualcomm morning keynote.   Banking on a commitment from Microsoft, Qualcomm is supporting Windows 8 along with ARM technology.  Their move into the x86 arena was showcased on stage with a demo tablet powered by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon S4 running Windows 8.  Furthering Qualcomm’s expansion into the home, Lenovo showed off their SmartTV powered by Snapdragon with voice activated remote control.  Can they truly get an instant on device?

Walking the floor there were many booths displaying motion sensing software.  Soon our online shopping experience will be improved as we virtually try on clothes using motion sensing devices that allow us to view the item’s fit as well as the color.

CES Mainly Evolutionary

Generally I would say that my observations drew me to the conclusion that most of what was at CES this year was improvements on existing products technologies.  That is I didn’t see anything that was totally revolutionary.  There were two announcements made at keynote speeches that I found quite intriguing.

Qualcomm CEO Dr. Paul Jacobs gave the opening keynote speech on Tuesday, January 10th.  During his presentation he invited Liu Jun, President of Lenovo mobile internet and digital home group on stage for an announcement from Lenovo.  Jun proceeded to demo his company’s SmartTV that is being powered by Qualcomm's snapdragon SoC. The TV is currently only available in China but what I found interesting was that Lenovo was expanding its product line into the consumer’s living room. It’s also a feather in Qualcomm's hat, as it expands Qualcomm's market penetration into televisions.

Several hours later at an afternoon keynote speech Intel’s CEO Paul Otellini also brought out Liu Jun, from Lenovo for an announcement. Liu Jun proceeded to announce that Lenovo would be producing a smart phone powered by Intel's atom. Yet another market that Lenovo is continuing to expand into.  And what a great win for Intel.  They've been targeting the atom processor for smart phones and now they not only have Motorola, an established player in the cell phone market, but they also have a partner with a built in connection to the China market.

36% of Fabs in High-Risk Zones: Semico Releases Semiconductor Updated Fab Database

Phoenix, Arizona January 17, 2012 - Semiconductor revenues were flat in 2011 as the industry dealt with numerous challenges. These changes have impacted the status of semiconductor fabs worldwide: capacity, capex, wafer size, closures, launches, production ramps, technology node migration, and employee count.

The Agony of Digital Rights Management

The semiconductor industry likes to think it doesn't have to worry about software or Digital Rights Management (DRM). I'm often told "those things will work themselves out on their own."

But the truth is, DRM defines how a user will interact with technology. And it defines how different devices are able to communicate. Can you play that movie you downloaded on your tablet, smartphone, or TV? That's DRM, and it's also the digital ecosystem from a consumer's point of view.

One of the themes from this year's Consumer Electronics Show was that we've moved beyond devices. Moore's Law has ensured that we've reached an age where one notebook or another is pretty much the same. So the struggle for the hearts of consumers is now about convincing them which ecosystem, or user interface, is the best for them. That will decide what phone they buy, which TV, which tablet, etc. And all of this is built upon DRM.

So what did CES tell us about DRM? That it's going to be a long, hard battle for our rights as consumers during the next five years. I say this, not because anyone at CES told me, but because of how the security sessions went. Led by a Department of Homeland Security moderator, the mobile security panel showed that they're afraid of technology, and that their solution to all the security problems out there is to tether us more firmly to the grid. Every step you take will require authentication.

Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions 4Q11

The Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions is a quarterly publication. It includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2015. Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, there is a five-page summary write-up providing the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.

Table of Contents: 

Is Amazon Burning Apple with Kindle Fire?

In the closing days of 2011 it was reported that Amazon’s shipments of Kindle Fire were stronger than expected. It was launched in mid-November. By the end of 2011 Amazon announced about 4 million Kindles were shipped in December alone, of which more than half were the Fire. Amazon has not yet released official end-of-year results. The Kindle Fire is estimated to have shipped between 4 and 5 million units in its debut. According to Amazon “Kindle Fire is the #1 best-selling, most gifted, and most wished for product across the millions of items available on Amazon.com since its introduction 13 weeks ago.“

Has this hurt Apple iPad2 sales in 4Q 2011? There are some reports that Kindle Fire took away 1 to 2 million units of potential sales from Apple. However, Semico views this as just speculation at this point. There have been no official statements from Apple on results of this most recent quarter. The company had not made any definitive statements on sales projections for Apple iPAD2 for the quarter. In light of the fact that the tablet PC market is still relatively new and we experienced various supply chain disruptions due to earthquakes and floods, one could not expect otherwise.

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