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September 2011

Semico CTO Tony Massimini to Speak at SEMI Event in Phoenix

Tony Massimini
Chief of Technology
Semico Research

Phoenix, Arizona September 27, 2011 - The Semiconductor industry was on a path to break $300 billion U.S. dollars in 2011, only to stagnate this summer as worries of excess inventories and lackluster demand plagued manufacturers. At the SEMI Arizona Breakfast Forum on October 11, 2011, several industry leaders will present their views on challenges the industry faces on its way to recovery.

Semico's MAP Model Indicates High Growth for MEMS in All Mobile Phones

Phoenix, Arizona September 20, 2011 - MEMS devices in cell phones provide a variety of functions. There are inertial sensors such as accelerometers and gyroscopes, motor drivers that control the autofocus function for the camera, microphones and microspeakers. A high-growth area is RF MEMS, replacing the RF transceiver, which has traditionally been an application-specific analog part. The oscillator is moving from a standard crystal to a MEMS version. Micro-mirrors support picoprojectors and Qualcomm's Mirasol display.

Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions 3Q11

The Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions is a quarterly publication. It includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2015. Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, there is a five-page summary write-up providing the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.

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A Semiconductor Industry Stimulus Plan

Last week Semico released its industry forecast outlook for the balance of 2011 and 2012. Unfortunately, all the indicators have moved 2011 into the negative territory. Semiconductor sales will end the year 1.6% lower than 2010. That should not be too surprising as the Semico IPI began moving down in May of 2010, warning us of a sluggish second half 2011. The economic malaise, along with the natural disasters around the world has only made semiconductor sales even more challenging.

The good news is that the Semico IPI points to a bottom in the first quarter 2012. Not only are all the economic and supply chain indicators pointing to a better 2012, but it is also consistent with the industry technology cycles. Intel is rolling out their 22nm process technology by the end of this year. GLOBALFOUNDRIES and TSMC are ready with their 28nm processes.

New technologies mean new products or at least new features for our existing electronics devices. In addition, the good news is that GLOBALFOUNDRIES remains committed to their capacity expansion and technology development plans. Fab expansions at their Fab 1 in Dresden and Fab 8 in New York remain on schedule. And at their recent GLOBALFOUNDRIES Technology Conference in Santa Clara, company executives proudly discussed their continued push to develop 20nm processes and even 14nm.

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